The Roger Federer we’ve known is gone

“I don’t believe what I’m seeing,” said John McEnroe, as Roger Federer sprayed another forehand six feet past the baseline en route to a straight-set loss at the U.S. Open to No. 19 seed Tommy Robredo and another early exit from a Grand Slam.

Neither could anyone else, except, perhaps, Roger Federer, who seemed oddly resigned to his fate early in the stunning defeat.

Even as his one-time invincibility waned and he went through his streak of Slam-less years, and even during his summer woes that were capped by a stunning loss to No. 116 Sergiy Stakhovsky in the second round of Wimbledon, there was always the feeling that even if Roger Federer was down in a match, his comeback was inevitable. He’d summon whatever it was that made him the sport’s all-time leader in Grand Slams and pull it out in the end.

When Federer went down two sets to Robredo on Monday night in New York, that feeling wasn’t there. It didn’t mean Federer couldn’t come back to win the match, the same way he didn’t always win those previous matches when you figured he’d comeback. But this time, there was a different inevitability all together. It was the inevitability of aging and decline.

Federer’s forehands sailed long. His footwork looked like that of someone wearing cinder blocks in the bottom of the Hudson. Every volley seemed to hit the middle of the net. He looked tense on every break point — he’d finish 2 for 16 and blew three games in which he held a 0-40 lead. This wasn’t the Roger Federer of old, nor the Roger Federer of the recent past. This was a one-time great struggling with the most basic of fundamentals and losing to a fellow tennis old-timer (Robredo is 31) that he’d owned throughout his career.

After going nine straight years of making every Grand Slam quarterfinal, Federer has now missed the last two. His ranking is so precarious that he’s not assured of qualifying for the year-end championships. It’s hard to believe he was the No. 1 player in tennis just 10 months ago.

It’s over for him, they’ll say. And it is, right up until it isn’t.

Consider, Federer only lost nine fewer points than Robredo. His ranking will rise to No. 6 after the U.S. Open, thanks to Juan Martin Del Potro’s early exit. He’s been hampered by a bad back and had a false start with an equipment change in July. He won Wimbledon 14 months ago and took Andy Murray to five sets earlier this year at the Australian Open.

No legend has ever gone out gracefully. The decline was inevitable. Unless Federer went out on top, he was never going to keep making Slam quarterfinals with ease.

This is the natural aging process that happens to all athletes, it’s just more pronounced in a brutal one-on-one sport like tennis. Federer can’t hide behind an offensive line or defer to his young point guard. It’s him and only him out on the baseline. But don’t write the tennis obituaries yet. As long as Federer has the desire and maintains his health, he’s capable of making at least one more Grand Slam charge. It’s almost inevitable.